China Tracker - Details for Puda Coal (PUDA)


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 Puda Coal
Shares Outstanding (MRQ): 30.02 mill 
New Shares / Dilution (TTM): 14.43 mill92.54%
New Shares / Dilution (since Dec 31, 2008): 14.79 mill97.14% 
Cash (MRQ): 156.17 mill0.00%
Account Receivables (MRQ): 36.87 mill0.00%
Account Receivables (Q/Q): + 0.29 mill0.79% 
Long-Term Debt (MRQ): 5.20 mill0.00%
Revenue Growth (Q/Q): 0.59% 
Revenue Growth (Y/Y): 50.26%
Net Income Growth (Q/Q): -21.50% 
Net Income Growth (Y/Y): 9.78% 
EPS Growth (Y/Y): -42.98%
Net Margin (Q/Q): 4.5% (5.8%)-1.30% 
Net Margin (Y/Y): 4.5% (6.2%)-1.70% 
EPS | P/E (2 MRQ Projection): $0.620.00 
CFPS | P/CF (2 MRQ Projection): $0.230.00 
Price/Sales (2 MRQ Projection): 0.00
Price/Book (MRQ): 0.00 
Auditor: currently none
 
 Forward Projections (Fiscal Year)
EPS | P/E (Estimates updated 2010-10-31): $1.450.00 
 Basic Facts and History (show more)
Reporting Type: U.S. Company (10-K Filings) 
Going Public: Reverse Merger on 2005-07-15 
Uplisting to Senior Exchange: on 2009-09-22 at $4.40 (-100.00% since Uplisting)

 Business Outlook

COVERAGE TERMINATED (Going Dark)
Recent Chain of Events:
2011-09-02 -- Delisting from NYSE Amex
2011-09-01 -- Last SEC Filing
2011-08-19 -- Auditor Engagement
2011-07-07 -- Auditor Resignation
2011-04-11 -- Trading halted by NYSE Amex
2011-03-16 -- Last Quarterly/Annual Report: FY2010 ended December 31, 2010

(Source: Trading China, 2012-09-30)

On July 13, 2011, the Independent Committee of the Board received a draft merger agreement from Chairman of the Board, Mr. Ming Zhao, pertaining to the preliminary buy-out proposal made by Mr. Zhao on April 29, 2011. Although it is expected that evaluation and negotiation of the draft agreement will take at least several weeks, neither the Company nor the Independent Committee can provide any assurances that a definitive agreement will be executed or approved or that a transaction will be consummated or the timing of such. The Company will provide no other updates regarding the proposed buy-out until there is a material development.

(Source: PR Newswire, 2011-07-25)

By letter dated July 7, 2011, the independent registered public accounting firm of Puda Coal, Moore Stephens, resigned, effectively immediately. Moore Stephens served as the Company's auditor since July 19, 2005. Moore Stephens also advised the Company that further reliance should no longer be placed on its previously issued audit reports relating to the Company's financial statements for fiscal years 2009 and 2010. The resignation and non-reliance advice by Moore Stephens are based on its conclusion that it is no longer able to rely on the representations of the Company's management received in connection with its audits of the Company's financial statements for the last two fiscal years. Moore Stephens believes such management representations are materially inconsistent with the alleged unauthorized transfers of subsidiary ownership by the Company's Chairman, Mr. Ming Zhao, which are currently subject to the investigation by the Audit Committee. The Company's Audit Committee will continue its investigation into the alleged unauthorized transactions.

(Source: PR Newswire, 2011-07-12)

    see all Business Outlook notes

 Analyst Coverage (show less)
2011-04-11Rodman & RenshawDowngradeTerminatedn/a
 

Termination of Coverage Effective immediately to allocate resources more efficiently within our coverage universe. Upon termination of coverage, any of our prior financial projections on Puda should not be considered reliable.

2011-03-30Brean MurrayReiterationBuy$21.00
2011-03-16Brean MurrayReiterationBuy$21.00
2010-12-20Brean MurrayReiterationBuy$20.00
 

On Dec. 9th, Puda Coal received approval from the Shanxi government, officially allowing it to transition from a coal washing to a coal mining company. In our view, it's an extremely important milestone that Puda is now permitted (beginning January 1, 2011) to mine coal from its Da Wa mine. In addition, Puda also recently completed a roughly $100 million capital raise to fund the rest of its previously-announced thermal coal mine acquisitions (as well as the expansion of those mines). In total, we expect Puda to produce roughly 2 million tons annually from its thermal coal mines (based on its % ownership in these mines) when they are fully up and running. In terms of our new estimates, we are slightly decreasing our 2011 EPS figure, largely based on the new increased share count. However, we are also raising our target from $18 to $20, to reflect the reality of finally being able to call Puda a coal miner, not just a coal washer.

Da Wa Coal Mine to Begin Production on January 1st, 2011: On Dec. 9th, Puda received approval from the Shanxi Coal Mine Industry Bureau to begin production at the Da Wa coal mine on January 1st, 2011. Da Wa is the larger of the two coal mines that comprise the Pinglu Part 1 project. The company estimates that the capacity expansion at Da Wa will take between 8-12 months. During that time, the mine can produce up to 290k metric tons of thermal coal. After the expansion is completed, the Da Wa mine will have a capacity of 600k tons per year. (We'd note that our detailed 2011-2013 production schedule for all of Puda's mines is laid out on page 2.) In our view, the Da Wa approval is a huge milestone for Puda, as it transitions from a coal washer to a coal miner.

Financing in Place for Development of All Puda's Thermal Coal Mines: Puda recently raised just over $100 million for the purchase and development of the rest of its thermal coal mines (Pinglu Part 2). With the financing for all of its thermal coal mines fully in place, Puda can now focus on working to get the necessary permits to ultimately produce up to 2 million tons of thermal coal on an annual basis.

Thermal Coal Markets Continue to Tighten: The global thermal coal markets continue to tighten. Just last week, Dow Jones Newswires reported that Coal India is in advanced discussions with Peabody Energy (BTU $60.53, Buy) to buy a 15% stake in an Australian thermal coal mine, which would value that mine (which produces 2.1 million metric tons of coal annually) at $800 million. In addition, prices in Pinglu County in Shanxi have increased over 10% during the past month.

Valuation: We are maintaining our Buy and are increasing our target from $18 to $20. Our target is based on a detailed DCF model and a 3.5x estimated 2012 EV/EBITDA multiple. We moved our target year from 2011 to 2012, which we have also recently done with some other names in our universe (for example International Coal Group (ICO $7.00, Buy)) In Puda's case, we felt this was appropriate, as 2012 more accurately reflects its expected coal production levels, when its mines are almost all fully running. However, we significantly discounted our target 2012 EV/EBITDA multiple to reflect the reality that Puda still has a lot of work to do between now and then. We'd note Puda is currently trading at just 2.2x 2012 EV/EBITDA. 

2010-11-16Brean MurrayReiterationBuy$18.00

    see all Analyst Ratings

 Recent Financings
2010-12-17Priced$101.50 mill9.00 mill shares$12.00
2010-08-17Filing$90.00 mill--
2009-12-03Filing$13.56 mill--

 Investor Presentations
2010-12-08 (HTML)   VIEW
2010-05-17 (HTML)   VIEW
2010-03-16 (HTML)   VIEW
PUDA
Coal
SCORE
-2
UNDER REVIEW
READ: Score Cards Explained
SAFETY/RISK SCORE
EXTREME RISK
DETAILS: Safety/Risk Model for PUDA
Current Price:  n/a
F10k Day (2005-11-02): -100.00%$16.11
2009 Close: -100.00%$7.35
2010 Close: -100.00%$14.25
2011 Close: -100.00%$0.24
High (2012-04-27): -100.00%$0.29
Low (2012-04-11): -100.00%$0.02
Exchange:
Market Capitalization: n/a
Total Shares: 30.02 mill
Float: n/a
Avg Volume: n/a
Short Interest: 5.20 mill
Short Ratio: 25.41%n/a
Last Quarter: 2010-12-31
Revenue (MRQ): 90.53 mill
Net Income (MRQ): 4.11 mill
Op. Cash Flow (MRQ): -5.76 mill
all financial data provided without warranty